LAS VEGAS (AP) - The Stanley Cup Final is so near being a tossup, Florida would likely be favored if the Panthers had home-ice benefit.
But that edge comes from Edmonton, which mainly explains why the Oilers are slight favorites to win the series, which begins Wednesday.
"However you wish to look at this pie, you might make an argument that either group might be preferred," Caesars Sportsbook head of hockey Karry Shreeve said. "Home ice is definitely playing a part. You're just playing the percentages. The group that wins Game 1 of the Stanley Cup, they go on to win approximately 75% of the time."
BetMGM Sportsbook lists the Oilers as -130 favorites to win Game 1 and take that important 1-0 series lead. The sportsbook makes Edmonton as the -125 favorite to become the very first Canadian group since Montreal in 1993 to hoist the Stanley Cup.
Defending champion Florida, which beat Edmonton in 7 games in 2015, is the +105 underdog.
BetMGM trading supervisor Christian Cipollini said about 55% of the cash has come in on the Oilers.
Edmonton Oilers' Connor McDavid (97) speaks to media throughout a press conference, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup last series versus the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press by means of AP)
"I would anticipate that to most likely continue," Cipollini said. "I believe we'll most likely take a bit more Oilers money even if of Connor McDavid, however this is a rematch. Florida won last year, so I think we will wind up getting an even projection."
Hockey handicapper Alex B. Smith, who co-hosts The Ice Guys podcast, does not purchase the Oilers need to be favored.
"You do not see rematches too typically in the Cup Final," Smith said. "When you do, you constantly ask yourself the obvious question: Are these 2 groups much better or even worse than they were last year? I 'd say Florida is a better version of themselves from in 2015. Edmonton (is) somewhat even worse than in 2015, particularly when you look at no Zach Hyman readily available for this series. Connor Brown is returning for Game 1, but how healthy is he going to be?
"I provide the edges to Florida based off of they've been playing better, sound defense. I believe they're a tighter group than they were in 2015."
Edmonton's captain ended up being the 2nd skater and 6th player to be awarded the Conn Smythe Trophy as the playoffs MVP last season while using the losing team.
McDavid leads this postseason in scoring with 26 points, one ahead of colleague Leon Draisaitl, and is the +100 preferred at BetMGM to win the Conn Smythe, providing him a chance to make more history even if the Panthers win.
"Are they actually going to offer McDavid back-to-back Conn Smythes in losing efforts?" Cipollini asked. "He is the preferred due to the fact that of the points scored and there's already a precedent that they could offer it to him here, however that's something to enjoy as the video games get going. If there is a Florida player that isn't truly sticking out ... there is a genuine world where it might be him again in a losing effort."
Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner has actually long been viewed as a weak point on the lineup, a credibility that seemed sealed when he was benched 2 games into the playoffs.
But Skinner is a major reason Edmonton is still playing. He has actually permitted one or absolutely no goals in 5 of his past 7 starts, three of them shutouts.
Another terrific run in the web could put Skinner, noted +3500 at BetMGM, in position to win the Conn Smythe.
"I would not have actually informed you this was sustainable in the past," Smith said of Skinner's hot play. "Now, with one series left, it certainly is sustainable."
Florida is making its 3rd consecutive look in the Stanley Cup Final, another deep run in which tiredness might finally capture up to the Panthers. Or they might simply be on a heater having actually won 10 of their previous 11 playoff series.
Shreeve stated the metrics indicate a Panthers champion and though either outcome would be fine with Caesars, a Florida success would be better.
"I wear ´ t hate where we ´ re at with this one," Shreeve said. "Last year was a bit harder due to the fact that more people liked Florida, however individuals are all about Edmonton this postseason, which I like."
Because this series obviously could go in any case and Oklahoma City is heavily preferred over Indiana in the NBA Finals, that could increase wagering interest in the Stanley Cup Final.
"I think it helps the NBA is getting the less sexier match," Shreeve stated. "The more bettable series is going to be Edmonton-Florida. If things remain tight, it has an opportunity to go six or seven video games, which would assist."
AP NHL playoffs: https://apnews.com/hub/stanley-cup and https://apnews.com/hub/nhl
Edmonton Oilers' Leon Draisaitl (29) and Connor McDavid (97) participate in practice, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup last series against the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press through AP)
FILE - Florida Panthers forward Aleksander Barkov hoists the Stanley Cup after beating the Edmonton Oilers in Game 7 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup Final, Monday, June 24, 2024, in Sunrise, Fla. (Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press through AP, File)
